Unintended Impact of Initial Prescribing in Hypnotics Abuse
Published:
Recommended citation: Xiang (Charlie) Cheng, Manqi (Maggie) Li, Yan Huang, 2023, Unintended Impact of Initial Prescribing in Hypnotics Abuse, working paper.
Abstract: Hypnotics misuse is a severe global problem. We discover the causal impact of initial prescribing on long-term outcomes. We ask how physician’s decision is affected by historical prescriptions and what are the underlying mechanisms. We propose three structural models representing physician decision behaviour, where physicians make decisions based on 1) solely the inferred health state, 2) a combination of previous dosage and the inferred state, or 3) a Bayesian updated inferred state. We then quantify the effect of prescribing additional dosage in the initial visit. We stress the need for careful decisions in the early stage of the treatment.